Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) vs Market Cap
FDV vs market cap: how fully diluted valuation is calculated, why data sites differ, and what the market cap to FDV ratio says about the dilution still ahead.
Key takeaways
- Market cap = price × circulating supply. FDV = price × max supply, although some sites use total supply instead.
- FDV is the market cap a token must reach just to keep today's price once all of its supply circulates.
- Hypothetical Tokens A and B both have a $200M market cap, but B's $2B FDV means 900% growth just to hold its price.
- Market cap ÷ FDV equals the share of supply already circulating. A low ratio means most dilution is still ahead.
- FDV says nothing about timing. Pair it with the vesting and emission schedule before drawing conclusions.
On this page
- What is the difference between FDV and market cap?
- Why do sites calculate FDV differently?
- Worked example: same market cap, very different FDV
- Check any token’s FDV in four steps
- How to read the market cap to FDV ratio
- When FDV misleads
- Map when the gap closes
- The bottom line
- Frequently asked questions
- Sources
Two tokens can carry the same market cap and still face completely different futures. The difference hides in a number many people skip: fully diluted valuation, or FDV. This guide shows how FDV is calculated, why sites don’t agree on it, and how to turn the gap between FDV and market cap into a concrete question you can answer with a calculator.
What is the difference between FDV and market cap?
Market cap values only the tokens trading today: price × circulating supply. FDV values every token that will ever exist at today’s price. CoinMarketCap calculates it as max supply × price.
FDV is a hypothetical. CoinGecko’s guide to FDV points out that as vested tokens enter circulation, “the value per token may start to drop if there isn’t a relative increase in demand.” FDV is not a price target or a valuation anyone has agreed to pay; it is today’s price stretched across tomorrow’s supply.
Formula: Market cap = Price × Circulating supply. FDV = Price × Max supply (or × Total supply, depending on the site). Market cap ÷ FDV = Circulating supply ÷ Max supply.
That last line is worth remembering. Because both figures use the same price, the ratio of market cap to FDV is simply the share of supply already circulating.
Why do sites calculate FDV differently?
Data sites don’t use the same supply figure. CoinMarketCap multiplies price by max supply. CoinGecko’s FDV guide multiplies price by total supply, which it describes as tokens in circulation plus tokens pending distribution, excluding burned coins. For a token with a large unminted remainder, the two FDVs can differ widely.
Our guide to circulating, total and max supply shows a hypothetical token with an FDV of $500 million on one basis and $300 million on the other. The practical rule: when you compare two tokens’ FDVs, take both from the same site.
Worked example: same market cap, very different FDV
Consider two hypothetical tokens:
- Token A: price $2.00, circulating supply 100,000,000, max supply 125,000,000.
- Token B: price $0.20, circulating supply 1,000,000,000, max supply 10,000,000,000.
Their market caps match: $2.00 × 100,000,000 = $200,000,000 and $0.20 × 1,000,000,000 = $200,000,000. Their FDVs don’t: $2.00 × 125,000,000 = $250,000,000 for Token A, and $0.20 × 10,000,000,000 = $2,000,000,000 for Token B. Token A has 80% of its supply circulating; Token B has 10%.
| Token A | Token B | |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $2.00 | $0.20 |
| Circulating supply | 100M | 1,000M |
| Max supply | 125M | 10,000M |
| Market cap | $200M | $200M |
| FDV | $250M | $2,000M |
| Market cap ÷ FDV | 80% | 10% |
Now ask the question FDV really answers: how much must the market cap grow just for the price to stay where it is once all supply circulates?
- Token A: $250,000,000 ÷ $200,000,000 − 1 = 25%.
- Token B: $2,000,000,000 ÷ $200,000,000 − 1 = 900%.
Flip it around. If each market cap stayed at $200,000,000, full dilution would imply $200,000,000 ÷ 125,000,000 = $1.60 for Token A, 20% below today, and $200,000,000 ÷ 10,000,000,000 = $0.02 for Token B, 90% below today.
Timing changes how demanding that is. If both tokens reached full supply over four years, Token A’s market cap would need to grow (250 ÷ 200)^(1/4) − 1 ≈ 5.7% a year to keep its price flat. Token B’s would need (2,000 ÷ 200)^(1/4) − 1 ≈ 77.8% a year. That is the same compounding math covered in annualizing returns with CAGR.
Neither figure is a prediction. They are the growth rates at which the price per token merely stands still.
Check any token’s FDV in four steps
You can run this test on any token in a few minutes. Here it is applied to a third hypothetical, Token C, priced at $1.50 with 300,000,000 tokens circulating, a max supply of 500,000,000 and the remainder scheduled to unlock over three years.
- Collect three inputs from one source: price, circulating supply and max supply.
- Compute both valuations and the ratio: market cap = $1.50 × 300,000,000 = $450,000,000; FDV = $1.50 × 500,000,000 = $750,000,000; ratio = 60%.
- Compute the growth needed to hold the price: $750,000,000 ÷ $450,000,000 − 1 = 66.7%.
- Spread it over the unlock period: (750 ÷ 450)^(1/3) − 1 ≈ 18.6% a year for three years.
If step 4 produces a number that seems implausible for the project, you have learned something important about the current price without making any forecast.
How to read the market cap to FDV ratio
| Market cap ÷ FDV | What it tells you | Next question to ask |
|---|---|---|
| Above 80% | Most supply already trades; market cap and FDV tell a similar story | Can new tokens still be minted beyond the stated cap? |
| 40% to 80% | A meaningful share of supply is still to come | When do the remaining tokens unlock, and to whom? |
| Below 40% | Most supply has not reached the market yet | How fast does it arrive, and how large is each unlock? |
Treat these bands as a reading aid, not a verdict. A low ratio can be manageable if the remaining supply arrives slowly to users who earn it, and a high ratio doesn’t make a project sound.
To answer the “when” question, you need the schedule. Token vesting explained shows how to turn allocations into a monthly unlock timeline, and why token unlocks matter to holders shows how to size individual unlock events.
When FDV misleads
- No max supply. If a token has no cap, a max-supply FDV can’t be calculated, and a total-supply FDV only reflects tokens minted so far. Look at the annual issuance rate instead.
- Supply that arrives over decades. If the remaining tokens will be emitted slowly, FDV overstates near-term dilution.
- Tokens that may never circulate. Treasury or ecosystem reserves count toward FDV even if some are later burned or never distributed.
- Price targets in disguise. Multiplying a hoped-for price by max supply often produces a valuation far beyond anything the market has paid for comparable assets. Crypto price targets and implied market cap shows how to test that.
- A low unit price. Token B’s $0.20 looks cheaper than Token A’s $2.00, yet its FDV is $2,000,000,000 ÷ $250,000,000 = 8 times larger. Market cap vs price explains why unit price alone says little.
Map when the gap closes
FDV tells you how big the gap is; the schedule tells you when it closes. Our token vesting calculator lays out each allocation’s releases by date, so you can see how quickly circulating supply moves toward the max.
The bottom line
Market cap prices the tokens trading today, while FDV prices every token at today’s price. The ratio between them is the share of supply already circulating, and the gap is the growth needed just to hold the price as supply arrives. Take both numbers from one source, then check the schedule to learn when that gap closes.
Frequently asked questions
What is the difference between FDV and market cap?
Market cap multiplies the price by the circulating supply, so it values only the tokens trading today. Fully diluted valuation multiplies the same price by the max supply, or by total supply on some sites, so it values every token that will exist. The gap shows how much supply has not reached the market yet. FDV is hypothetical, because more supply at the same demand would lower the price.
Is a low market cap to FDV ratio bad?
Not automatically, but it tells you most of the supply has not reached the market. A 10% ratio means the market cap must grow 900% just for the price to hold once everything circulates. Whether that is realistic depends on how quickly the remaining tokens arrive, who receives them and whether demand grows. Check the vesting and emission schedule before drawing any conclusion.
Does FDV use total supply or max supply?
It depends on the site. CoinMarketCap calculates FDV as max supply × price, while CoinGecko's FDV guide uses total supply × price, with total supply meaning tokens in circulation plus tokens pending distribution, excluding burned coins. For tokens with a large unminted remainder, the two results can differ widely, so compare FDVs taken from the same source.
What happens to the price when a token becomes fully diluted?
Nothing is fixed, but you can measure the pressure. If market cap stayed constant, the price would fall in proportion to the supply increase. For a hypothetical token with 1,000,000,000 tokens circulating out of 10,000,000,000, a flat $200,000,000 market cap would imply $0.02 per token at full dilution, 90% below a $0.20 price. Rising demand could offset some or all of that.
Sources
- Market Capitalization (Cryptoasset, Aggregate) — CoinMarketCap Support, Metric Methodologies
- What Is Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) In Crypto? — CoinGecko Learn
- Supply (Circulating, Total, Max) — CoinMarketCap Support, Metric Methodologies
- Methodology — CoinGecko
This content is for education only and is not financial, investment, tax or legal advice. Crypto assets are volatile and you can lose money. Examples use hypothetical numbers. See our disclaimer and editorial policy.